"The future has come"
"At present, the business model of distributed PV standardization has not yet been formed, and the market as a whole is relatively messy. Once the business model is solidified, more enterprises enter the distributed market, and the price of small-sized inverters will rapidly decline, which also means the PV inverter market. The fourth shuffle is about to begin."
A senior expert who has been fighting in the inverter market for nearly 10 years said, "Probably in the next one to two years, it will once again face a major market reshuffle."
Today, the PV inverter market is about to face a fourth industry reshuffle. Let's first take a look at what happened to the first three reshuffles in the PV inverter market.
1、The first shuffle: domestic companies “swarmed in”.
Around 2009, thanks to the promotion of the domestic Golden Sun demonstration project and the concession project, the strong support of national policies has enabled domestic PV applications to enter a large-scale market application stage. At this time, only a few domestic enterprises such as Kono Weiye, Guanya, and Sunshine Power have a certain amount of production in the PV inverter market, and the rest are basically dependent on imports. For a time, the domestic PV market has flooded a large number of foreign brands such as Emerson, SMA, Carraro, AE, Xeikon, Siemens, Schneider, ABB, and POWER-ONE.
At the same time, 200%-300% of inverter profits have stimulated domestic power electronics manufacturers, and many manufacturers of power electronics such as inverters, UPS, communication power supplies, and power supplies have begun to develop photovoltaic inverters. Or directly transform into a photovoltaic inverter. From a technical point of view, market entry barriers are not high, and it is easier for these companies to switch to inverters. Due to the high profits and low barriers to entry, the number of domestic inverter manufacturers has risen rapidly. According to statistics, from 2011 to 2012, the number of domestic inverter manufacturers reached 140.
The blindness and hysteresis of market regulation began to manifest itself. When the domestic inverter capacity was released in a short period of time, the market began to supply too much, and the inverter price dropped rapidly. After a round of fierce market competition, the price of photovoltaic inverters has dropped from 2 yuan/watt to 0.7-0.8 yuan/watt. Many domestic companies have gone bankrupt or closed down due to price wars. Most of the foreign brands have also been severely affected, and they have to withdraw from the Chinese market due to sharply reduced profits. Even Emerson, who was ranked second in China's market share, was eventually acquired by Shangneng Electric. Brands like Carraro and Xeikon can hardly hear their voices on the market.
2、The second reshuffle: the price war of domestic enterprises, the big oligarch wins
Between 2012 and 2013, when most foreign companies continued to be out of competition by domestic enterprises, the intensity of “killing” between domestic enterprises did not diminish. What remains unchanged is that the reshuffle is still dominated by price declines.
Since the photovoltaic market at that time was still dominated by ground power stations, the so-called large-scale market, Sunshine Power and Shangneng Electric, which have the technical and manufacturing strength in large-scale manufacturing, led the industry to reshuffle.
After this round of reshuffle, Sun Power and Shangneng Electric have gradually occupied 50% of the market share of the ground power station. Taking 2013 as an example, Shangneng Electric's market share reached 15%, and Sunshine Power reached 35%.
During this period, the situation of the domestic distributed market has not yet opened, and small-scale enterprises such as Gurui Watt, Gu Dewei and Sanjing Electric have mainly turned to exploring foreign markets. For example, Sanjing Electric has gained considerable market share in the home photovoltaic market in Belgium and Brazil.
3、The third reshuffle: Huawei entered the market and foreign trade companies returned to China.
In 2014, Huawei's strong presence and changes in foreign markets prompted the third reshuffle of the inverter market.
Huawei has chosen a string-based technology route in the field of inverters, and the rapid rise of the smart PV banner has further increased the market concentration and triggered a change in the market structure. In the end, Sunshine Power, Huawei and Shangneng accounted for more than 80% of the market share of the ground power station.
Before and after 2014, the foreign PV market also changed. Guruwate, Shanyi, Gu Dewei, Omnik, Sanjing Electric and other enterprises began to gradually return to China, but the domestic distributed market is still not optimistic.
In 2015, the domestic distributed market began to gradually start from Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The domestic distributed PV market has begun to erupt again, causing some companies to enter the fast lane. The data shows that in 2015, the revenues of the domestic market of small-scale enterprises such as Guriwatt, Sanjing Electric, and Gu Dewei gradually exceeded the revenue of foreign markets, especially in 2016, the sales growth of these enterprises in the domestic market were all Over 100%.
4、The fourth shuffle: inverter oligopoly layout distributed market
In 2016, the distributed market has become hot, and the inverter oligarchs in the ground market have begun to deploy distributed markets. Around 2017, large enterprises such as Sunshine Power, Huawei, and Shangneng have launched their own small inverters. Device. In 2017, Tianhe, GCL, Jingke, Suntech and other first-line PV module companies began to promote the distributed original system of their own brands.
At present, inverter companies show a relatively differentiated state of the terrestrial market and the distributed market. One is the oligarchic enterprises in the ground market, Huawei, Sunshine Power, Shangneng and Special Variants; the other is Guruwatt, Gu Dewei, Jin Lang, San, which have a large share in the distributed market. Jing Electric and so on.
The PV inverter market has moved to maturity, and there is no doubt that market competition will become more intense as the number of incoming players increases. In order to comply with the trend of the times, the company strives to make a living in this torrent of torrents.
Sun Ziyun: "The winner wins and then fights, the loser wins first and then wins." The market is overwhelming, and the company only follows the rules of the market and does its best to do everything possible to compete in the brutal market. Invincible.
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